Predicting Start-up Success - The Gottman Initiative

The Research Goal

The Gottman Initiative at TUM School of Management investigates how founding teams can become more resilient and successful.

Collaboration in founding teams is crucial at every stage of the entrepreneurial journey. The founding team is the strongest predictor of early venture success. Research shows that team interaction, conflict behavior, and cohesion predict company outcomes. At the same time, there is growing evidence that relationship stability supports firm survival. However, there is still little empirical evidence on how relationship quality and team-level dynamics predict startup outcomes. This project addresses that research gap.

Inspired by the research of John and Julie Gottman - who were able to predict divorce with more than 90 percent accuracy - we explore which team dynamics patterns predict co-founder break-up and startup outcomes.

Our goal is to develop sustainable strategies for strengthening entrepreneurial teams, making early risk signals visible, and integrating team diagnostics into the entrepreneurship ecosystem in a structural manner.

Our Method

About our panel

We analyze dedicated teams that meet a few key criteria to ensure comparability, a rigorous research design, and excellent research results

• They are 2 Co-Founders
• They are Native German Speakers
• They should be incorporated (e.g., UG)

More than 400 co-founders are currently part of The Gottman Initiative or have already completed their journey with us. 

About our study structure

Our longitudinal observational study is designed to capture all effects and gather multiple data points at various time steps throughout the founding team’s journey.

In our pre-study survey, we collect demographics, personality traits, and venture details. This enables us to have a wide set of control variables, such as emotional intelligence, empathy, or conflict style.

In our initial on-site session, which lasts 60 minutes, we capture conversations about a topic of conflict/discussion while recording audio, video data, and non-invasive physiological data (heart rate, skin conductance). We also utilize emotion AI software to analyze the founders' facial expressions during the conversations.

After the lab session, we follow the founder teams with virtual check-ins via surveys every 4 months to monitor progress and capture additional variables, such as assessing team satisfaction and venture performance.

We therefore can capture longitudinal effects such as firm survival, founder exits, funding, team satisfaction, team cohesion, number of employees from the starting point of the venture.

Our Academic Papers

• Ettner, J., Treffers, T., & Welpe, I. (2024). "Your sarcasm makes me want to quit!" - Contemptuous behavior in entrepreneurial teams predicts exit intentions. Frontiers of Entrepreneurship Research, 44, 1–6.
• Ettner, J., Treffers, T., & Welpe, I. M. (2024). Unveiling Team Dynamics: The Effect of the Four Horsemen in Co-Founder Conflicts on Team Satisfaction. In Academy of Management Proceedings (Vol. 2024, No. 1, p. 18915). Valhalla, NY 10595: Academy of Management.
• Ettner, J., Treffers, T., & Welpe, I. (2024, November). How do successful start-up teams handle conflict? – The impact of the Four Horsemen on long-term team satisfaction and exit intentions. [Conference presentation] Jahrestagung des Arbeitskreis Empirische Personal- und Organisationsforschung (AKempor), Düsseldorf, Germany.
• Ettner, J., & Welpe, I. (2025, June). Entrepreneurial Teams Under Pressure: A Longitudinal Study on Physiological Predictors of Satisfaction and Exit Intentions. [Conference Presentation] Babson College Entrepreneurship Research Conference (BCERC), Boston, USA.
• Ettner, J., & West, T. (2025, June). Predicting Co-Founder Exits: A Framework for Understanding Subtle Interaction Cues. [Paper Presentation] Babson College Entrepreneurship Research Conference (BCERC), Boston, USA.
• Ettner, J., Lützenrath, J., Treffers, T., & Welpe, I. (2025, June). Stress and Success: Investigating Physiological Predictors of Team Satisfaction and Exit Intentions in New Venture Teams. [Conference presentation] European Academy of Management Conference, Florence, Italy.
• Ettner, J., Lützenrath, J., Treffers, T., & Welpe, I. (2025, July). Stress and Success: Physiological Predictors for the Longevity of New Venture Teams. [Conference presentation] Academy of Management Conference (AOM), Copenhagen, Denmark.
• Kuhn, F. (2025, June 5). Beyond the Individual Entrepreneur: How Emotional Stability of the New Venture Team Predicts Early-Stage Venture Performance. Babson College Entrepreneurship Research Conference BCERC 2025, Boston, USA.
• Kuhn, F., Treffers, T. (2025, July 25-29.). From Stability to Scalability: How Emotional Stability of the Founding Team Predicts Venture Growth. European Academy of Management (EURAM) Annual Meeting, Florence, Italy.
• Schenk, N., Ahrens, F. K., Modliba, R. M., & Treffers, T. (2025). Do birds of a feather stay together? The dark triad in founding teams. Academy of Management Proceedings, 2025(1). https://doi.org/10.5465/AMBPP.2025.194
• Schenk, N., Ahrens, F. K., & Treffers, T. (2025, September 25). Narcissism as the “malicious one”: Partner and similarity effects of Dark Triad traits in founder teams. Paper presented at the Annual Conference of the Scientific Commission Technology, Innovation and Entrepreneurship (TIE) of the German Academic Association for Business Research (VHB), Bauhaus-Universität Weimar, Germany.
• Wimmer, C., Treffers, T., & Welpe, I. M. (2025, June 03–07). Entrepreneurial Team Member Exits: The Role of Emotional Expressions During Conflict in Predicting Team Satisfaction and Intent to Leave. Babson College Entrepreneurship Research Conference BCERC 2025, Boston, USA.
• Wimmer, C., Ettner, J., Treffers, T., & Welpe, I. M. (2025, June 22–25). EnJOY Conflict: How Emotions Affect Co-Founder Team Satisfaction and Exit Intentions. European Academy of Management (EURAM) Annual Meeting, Florence, Italy. - BEST PAPER AWARD
• Wimmer, C., Ettner, J., & Welpe, I. M. (2025, July 25–29). Joy in Conflict: How Positive Emotions Reduce Co-Founder Exit Intentions Through Team Satisfaction. 85th Annual Meeting of the Academy of Management (AOM), Copenhagen, Denmark.

The Team behind the Gottman Initiative

Since 2022, Prof. Isabell Welpe, Prof. Theresa Treffers, and a team of 5 PhD students have been working on advancing the research on co-founder dyads.

Our Partners from Science and Practice

We work closely with academic partners, e.g., Tessa West from NYU. In addition, we rely on a deep integration of partners from practice, including but not limited to venture capital funds and law firms specializing in early-stage ventures.

Tiburon, led by Daniel Wild and Felix Artmann, has been investing successfully into inspiring founders for over two decades. Tiburon focuses on seed and early-stage startups in the digital sector.

HTGF invests in tech founders who have the courage to shape our future from the beginning – pre-seed and seed – with a strong network in business and science, experience as founders in scaling startups, and in-depth tech know-how.

Tessa West is a Professor of Psychology at New York University (NYU). As a leading expert in the science of interpersonal communication in dyads and teams, she examines subtle interpersonal behaviors alongside “under the skin” physiological states to uncover the factors shaping how communication naturally unfolds during interactions.

ARQIS is an independent law firm operating internationally. About 80 lawyers and legal specialists provide the highest standards of legal advice for domestic and foreign companies regarding key issues of German, European, and Japanese commercial law.

TUM School of Management, namely the Chair for Strategy and Organization, is the home of The Gottman Initiative. The initiative is deeply embedded into TUM ecosystem.